Given the number of presidential aspirants from the three zones of the South that have indicated interest in the party’s ticket ahead of next year’s election, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has kept everyone guessing about the zone that would likely fly the party’s flag. Rivers State Correspondent MIKE ODIEGWU writes about the dilemma facing the party and what it is likely to do, if it wants to win the election
There is no doubt that the electoral success of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next election cycle largely depends on the choice of its presidential candidate and the geo-political of the south such a flag bearer comes from.
Political observers are of the view that it will be an impossible task for the APC to pick its candidate from the Southeast or Southsouth and expect victory at the polls.
Observers believe it would amount to political suicide for the APC to micro-zone its presidential ticket to the Southeast and the Southsouth because it does not enjoy wide acceptability in the two regions.
The regions are firmly controlled by the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP), the main opposition party, which appears to be seriously challenging the APC at the centre ahead of next year’s general elections.
Apart from Imo, Ebonyi and Cross Rivers states, eight other states in the two geopolitical zones are controlled by the PDP.
With the emotional and sentimental politics prevalent in the two zones where the APC does not enjoy wide acceptability, there is no guarantee that the governors in the three states controlled by the governing party at the centre can influence votes beyond 25 per cent during the election.
It is on record that President Muhammadu Buhari tried on three occasions to win the presidential election but failed because of a lack of support from entire southern Nigeria.
On each occasion, he garnered millions of votes but still ended up not winning the poll.
It dawned on him that he cannot emerge president based on votes from the north alone. It was not until 2015 when the Southwest decided to team up with the north, with the formation of the APC that Buhari emerged victoriously.
During that election, it became crystal clear that the APC has a herculean task of making inroads into the Southeast and the Southsouth. The people showed the party no love.
They branded it a Muslim party and chose to pitch their tent with the PDP. A few political leaders, who embraced the APC and came home with the sermons were treated like leprosy patients.
The Southwest, on the other hand, carried the message of the APC across its zone. Observers saw how political leaders in that zone worked for the success of the APC.
The result was that, despite the efforts by then President Goodluck Jonathan to break the resolve of the Southwest, almost all the states in the region were taken over by the APC.
Buhari garnered massive votes in the zone and was able to win the contest at the end of the day.
The Southsouth and the Southeast remained adamant and gave bulk votes to Jonathan. Even in Rivers, the then Governor Rotimi Amaechi was unable to give the party 25 per cent of the votes.
The then Minister of State for Education, Nyesom Wike, who later won the governorship election delivered over two million votes to the PDP. In Imo, the only APC state at the time, under the then Governor Rochas Okorocha was unable to give Buhari and the APC the required 25 per cent votes.
Electorates in the two zones voted against the APC and in favour of Jonathan and the PDP. In Edo State, it was a herculean task for the then Governor Adams Oshiomhole to garner votes for Buhari.
However, with the bulk of votes the APC garnered in the north and the Southwest, Buhari triumphed over Jonathan and was able to actualise his ambition to rule the country.
In 2019, despite efforts made by the APC leaders, the situation in the Southsouth and the Southeast, as far as the APC is concerned, remained the same.
They pitched their tent with former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the PDP by voting against the second term ambition of Buhari.
Despite his power of incumbency, Buhari could not win convincingly in the two zones. The party recorded abysmal results in many of the states.
Even as Transport Minister, Amaechi who was also the Director-General of the Buhari Campaign Organisation could not win up to the constitutionally-required 25 per cent votes in Rivers.
Ironically, during the buildup to the election, it was not difficult for Amaechi and other APC leaders in the zones to gather crowds in their political rallies.
The crowds that graced Amaechi’s rallies before the 2019 poll were larger than the one that attended the so-called APC Thanksgiving Service recently in Port Harcourt, which later ended up as Amaechi’s presidential declaration.
But, unfortunately, the mammoth crowd that attended the 2019 election campaign did not translate into votes for Amaechi and the APC.
Though the 2019 results in some states in the zone, apart from Rivers, were better when juxtaposed with that of the 2015 poll.
Nevertheless, the reality that stared everybody in the face was that the APC failed in the zone. Without mincing words, it took the efforts of the Southwest and its leaders through their collaboration with the north to salvage Buhari’s second term ambition.
Political observers believe that for failing to support the APC, especially during the last general election, the Southeast and the Southsouth have no moral justification to demand the presidential ticket of the APC.
If the APC mistakenly gives its ticket to anybody in the zone, they added, the party will deny itself an opportunity to retain power in 2023.
The argument is that the zone lost its chances in the APC because of the refusal of the people to embrace the ruling party.
As a result, some governors in the region that had promised to defect to the APC reneged on their promises.
When the Ebonyi State Governor Dave Umahi defected to the APC, there were speculations that his colleagues would join him in a similar move to demonstrate the zone’s seriousness to fly the presidential flag of the APC.
But others chose to remain in their parties. It was the same scenario when Cross River State Governor Ben Ayade joined the APC.
In fact, with Edo State Governor Godwin Obaseki joining the PDP, the entire Southsouth, aside from Cross Rivers, came under the control of the umbrella party; making it risky for the APC to think of a Southsouth presidential candidate.
“Thus, since the plot to bring them to APC to create a base for the party failed, it will be suicidal for the APC to hand over its ticket to anybody from the zone,” one of such observers added.
Indeed, the Buhari administration and the APC have continued to attract criticisms from many people in the zone, who are waiting patiently to register their anger once again at the polls.
Despite some big-ticket projects like the second Niger Bridge being undertaken in the zones by the Buhari administration, the people have refused to change their mindset.
Against this background, the Southeast and the Southsouth have every reason to demand the presidential ticket of the PDP. Little wonder, the governors from the zone have continued to insist that the PDP presidential ticket should be zoned to their region.
Wike, for instance, has continued to stand on the zones’ loyalty to the PDP and the party’s dominance in the area as the basis to demand the party’s ticket.
Recently as the zoning controversy rages in the PDP, the governors have insisted that the party should zone its 2023 presidential ticket to the southern part of Nigeria for equity and fairness.
Abia State Governor Okezie Ikpeazu said they had watched with keen interest the position of the PDP leadership regarding the issue of zoning, but they had no reason to change their earlier stand. He said: “Our position is that first, we are committed to the unity of our party and we have worked hard to make sure that this party remains a strong and viable vehicle to ‘rescue’ Nigeria come 2023.
“Be that as it may, we want to draw your attention to the fact that we have agreed as southern governors in Lagos and also in Delta that this party has to respect the zoning principle as enshrined in our constitution. And to that effect, we feel that the best thing to do is to zone the presidency to the south, and we stand on that position.
We have not seen any reason to change our position, because the party was founded based on equity and justice. We also think that equity and justice are important pillars that will ultimately stabilise our politics towards our journey in rescuing Nigeria.”
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